Election Day

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mario88
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Election Day

Postby mario88 » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:29 am

we are close to the election day and i think it deserves a thread of its own. even more so when we consider that it will most likely be a big part of next South Park's episode (good luck, matt & trey, with writing two episodes, each according to the possible winner. :mrgreen: )

jerry rubin, an american revolutionary in the 60ies and 70ies, said that everyone in the world should be allowed to vote in the american elections, since they have such a big influence all over the world. well, actually a lot of people said that. it is certainly true that the winner will affect a big part of world politics, especially in regards to relationships with Russia and MIddle East.
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mario88
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Re: Election Day

Postby mario88 » Sat Nov 05, 2016 11:40 am

as for me, if i were an American, i would vote neither of the two. they are simply too bad. i would normally vote Democrat and this time i would vote Republican if there were on the other side a half-decent human being. but i think they are both way beyond what's acceptable, so i would spend the day before the election gathering informations on the other candidates and vote for one of those. and i wouldn't care about "wasting" my vote. it would be a waste to vote for one of the two mainstream candidates.

if you guys think about it, it is quite obvious why the two parties have become so bad, even in comparison with their standards: it is because no matter what, most people vote for one of the two. of course you would think they would try to be good for the sake of being better than the other one, but at some point they must have kind of agreed it wasn't worth it.
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mario88
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Re: Election Day

Postby mario88 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:43 am

that's from an Italian betting site:

Image

hillary largely favourite over trump. but it's also important to see the margins and the number of deputies they get in the chambers.
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zzyzx 2
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Re: Election Day

Postby zzyzx 2 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 7:00 pm

Donald Trump is sueing the State of Nevada for allowing it's early voting places to stay open later than they were supposed to, and instead of just staying open longer to accommodate the people already in line, Trump alleges that the polls accepted votes from people who arrived AFTER the announced closing time of the polls.

Time now: 11:00 am PST. The court will hear this case within the hour :o

http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/natio ... 20111.html

btw, only ONE County in Nevada is involved in this suit - Clark County. Note: Las Vegas is in Clark County.
Big-Will
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Re: Election Day

Postby Big-Will » Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:15 pm

Go away, Donald. The polls close when the last person in line has cast his or her vote. If that should be at 10 pm and not at 7 so what?
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zzyzx 2
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Re: Election Day

Postby zzyzx 2 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:30 am

This could be a historic snapshot in time:

At the moment, at 4:30 PM PST, Trump is winning the electoral college :shock:

270 electoral votes are needed to win the election:

Image
JamesPup
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Re: Election Day

Postby JamesPup » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:51 am

I'm not sure but it looks like Trump has won. If he can hold on to either Wisconsin or Michigan that will help. I think Trump will win Pennsylvania too. I don't think I will be able to stay up for the whole thing but it has been shocking. I was sure Trump was going to lose Florida as it shot back and forth but Trump won it.

I think the episode tomorrow will need some editing if Trump wins. It seemed Matt and Trey were expecting a Clinton win. Can you imagine next season with Garrison and Jenner in the White House?
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zzyzx 2
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Re: Election Day

Postby zzyzx 2 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:34 am

zzyzx 2 wrote:This could be a historic snapshot in time:

At the moment, at 4:30 PM PST, Trump is winning the electoral college :shock:

270 electoral votes are needed to win the election:

Image
I posted "historic," as I fully expected the rest of the night to go to Mrs. Sandwich. However, she did not lead in the electoral college all night, not even once :o

Now, at 10:35 pm PST, here are the latest numbers:

Image

JamesPup wrote:I'm not sure but it looks like Trump has won. If he can hold on to either Wisconsin or Michigan that will help. I think Trump will win Pennsylvania too. I don't think I will be able to stay up for the whole thing but it has been shocking. I was sure Trump was going to lose Florida as it shot back and forth but Trump won it.

I think the episode tomorrow will need some editing if Trump wins. It seemed Matt and Trey were expecting a Clinton win. Can you imagine next season with Garrison and Jenner in the White House?
I'm sure that M&T did, as tomorrow's episode is "The Very First Gentleman." But this is South Park. Season 20 will still come to an end by episode 10, and Season 21 won't have anything to do with this, no matter who wins in the next few hours. For all we know, the episode that we'll see on Wednesday would have been totally rewritten in less than a day. Or, how about this: perhaps two scripts and animation were being actively being worked on to account for whomever wins the election :cartmanhappy:
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Re: Election Day

Postby Big-Will » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:25 am

265 - 218. Five more electoral votes and it's over - Trump will become President.
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JamesPup
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Re: Election Day

Postby JamesPup » Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:45 am

It happened, Miss Sandwich called Mr. Douche and conceded.
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mario88
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Re: Election Day

Postby mario88 » Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:11 am

not only has Big Douche won, but also by quite a large margin. Republicans will probably have the majority in both chambers. good job Turd Sandwich, it really takes a lot of talent to lose like this. :mrgreen:

i gotta say, i'm surprised because Americans are quite outspoken about their political preferences (or so i believed), so i thought the predictions were trustworthy. I thought: "it's not like Britain, where some people will vote for brexit but won't tell anybody about that". but lots of people were closet Big Douche supporters.
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JVM
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Re: Election Day

Postby JVM » Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:28 am

There's an effect called The Bradley Effect, usually applied to African-Americans, that suggests candidates who aren't white men do better in polls than in practice because people afraid of looking racist feign support for them. Indeed, many Republicans claimed the Bradley Effect had been boosting Obama in polls before the previous two elections. In this case, it simply applied to women instead of blacks.

I'm comparing this a lot to Kerry's loss to Bush eight years ago. A divisive primary saw a Democratic nominee who was experienced and therefore looked solid on paper, but was perceived as very dishonest, partially for voting for Iraq, and untrustworthy. The nominee received only lukewarm support from a party that figured it had this thing in the bag due to very obvious problems with the other party's nominee, but ultimately Midwestern states and Florida decided the night in a close election. Said Democratic nominee remains widely perceived as 'losing an easy one' and the base prefers to believe their more radical candidate would've prevailed in the race.

And incidentally, both of those nominees were Secretaries of State under Barack Obama, heh.
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kfgg
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Re: Election Day

Postby kfgg » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:11 am

I am freightened in a way I never have been before. I can't sleep. I'm sick to my stomach. There's just no future here anymore. I'm poor, and mentally disabled (One of the groups Trump hates)

Canada is going to see a lot of refugees. I wish I could be one.

By the way the douches who added Voter ID laws are why he won Wisconsin. Now we'll never have any hope here. It's all tarnished.
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JamesPup
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Re: Election Day

Postby JamesPup » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:16 pm

mario88 wrote:not only has Big Douche won, but also by quite a large margin. Republicans will probably have the majority in both chambers. good job Turd Sandwich, it really takes a lot of talent to lose like this. :mrgreen:

i gotta say, i'm surprised because Americans are quite outspoken about their political preferences (or so i believed), so i thought the predictions were trustworthy. I thought: "it's not like Britain, where some people will vote for brexit but won't tell anybody about that". but lots of people were closet Big Douche supporters.
Actual though the polls all looked like Clinton was going to win the polls are a little off all the time. There is a 3% margin of error for each poll. On election day there was Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. All of these either Trump or Clinton was up at the most by 3%. So there was some odds I figured being like 12% or 13% of a chance Trump could take 4 key states and win from Clinton's control. Lastly all the polls were based on picks by only 500 to 1000 people, so that is not that reflective of a states whole people. If you take a look at Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan they were all won by Trump but only by a 1% margin. Though the number of votes may seem like a lot it was real close in these states and if Hillary had retained just Florida and Michigan she would have won. This was a close race. Clinton didn't steal any of Trumps states but he stole five of hers that most polls gave her.
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triplemultiplex
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Re: Election Day

Postby triplemultiplex » Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:36 pm

Anyone old enough to have been a voter in 2008 and really, really wanted John McCain to win?
I am trying to figure out if the way I feel is just an opposite version of that kind of bummer or if it something deeper. Because this feels a lot more severe than what I observed back then.

Today I think I realized what is really rattling me is my fellow citizens who came out of the woodwork to make this happen. These are the people who are might be the ones to hurt me. And I don't think I mean like someone is going to beat me up; nothing like that. What is going to hurt me is all the mini-giant douches they will elect in upcoming elections and really bring that douchiness close to home and bring Trumpism to the local level.

It is very hard to resist some knee-jerk reactions of doom and gloom for the nation. But I do need to remind myself, there are other elements to the system that haven't been completely undermined yet. They are not stable, but they are strong enough to hold their ground in the short term. Palpatine has only been elected to the Chancellery, he is not yet asking for 'emergency powers'.

This marks another in a disturbing international trend toward more authoritarian and nationalist politics. The error bars on what the future will hold for all of us just got a shitload wider.
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